Total exchange BTC inflows have been net negative since July ’21

Bitcoin inflows across all exchanges have been net negative since last July, but four major exchanges have been running contrary to this trend with nearly an equal amount of net positive inflows.

There have been total net outflows of 46,000 BTC (worth around $1.8 billion at current prices) from all crypto exchanges since last July.

Only Binance, Bittrex, Bitfinex, and FTX have seen net positive inflows of 207,000 Bitcoin (BTC), according to data from blockchain analytics firm Glassnode’s March 7 newsletter. Over the same time period, net outflows have totaled 253,000 BTC from all other exchanges tracked.

FTX and Huobi have experienced the most dramatic shift in their BTC holdings since last July. Whereas FTX has more than tripled the amount of BTC it holds to 103,200 today, Huobi’s holdings have dwindled to just 12,300 BTC, or around 6% of what it held, from over 200,000.

Net outflows have been consistent since last year, with a few major spikes occurring in August and most recently on Jan. 11.

However, Glassnode attributes the current relatively low inflows to “the scale of market uncertainty at present,” and suggests that the crypto trading market, in general, has shifted to derivatives trading over spot sells in order to hedge risk.

Exchange inflows are measured to help give a better understanding of whether investors are preparing to liquidate or hodl their coins. Net inflows s incoming selling pressure whereas net outflows suggests more hodling.

The coins that remain on-chain maintain a realized price of $24,100 per BTC, suggesting most hodlers enjoy a profit margin of 63%. Realized price is the average price of all coins when they were moved on-chain.

The realized price contrasts with an implied price of $39,200. The implied price is an estimated fair value price per coin and is currently just below break-even as BTC was trading at $38,346 at the time of writing according to CoinGecko.

Right now, short-term holders are underwater by about 15% as the average price of coins that have moved on-chain in the last 155 days is $46,400 according to Glassnode.

Related: Bitcoin price rejection at $39K and mounting regulatory concerns tank the market again

In addition to the low volume of inflows and outflows is the profit and loss (PnL) ratio of sellers which has been demonstrably flattening since the beginning of 2021. Glassnode suggests that long-term holders (LTH) are growing tired of selling even though “we are yet to see a major LTH capitulation event as was seen at previous cyclical bottoms.” It added:

“The historically low magnitude of both STH and LTH losses may be signaling increasing probabilities of aggregate seller exhaustion.”

The newsletter warns that there still remains the risk of a “final and complete capitulation of both STH and LTH” which has happened at the bottom of previous cycle bottoms.